What is likely to happen to Social Security disability over the next five to ten years?  History may offer some guidance but Social Security’s looming trust fund problems will most likely dictate Congressional action.

Every year, SSA produces what is known as a “waterfall chart.”  Not sure what waterfalls have to do with this but this chart shows the approval rates for each stage of the disability adjudication process.  It is interesting to look at the waterfall charts over the past 1o to 15 years where you can see how approval rates have fluctuated.  Generally speaking approvals at initial have remained fairly constant – around 35% of initial applications are approved.  Reconsideration (the first appeal) fluctuates between 12% and 18%.  At the hearing level, however, we have seen approval rates (nationally) as high as 63% and as low as 45% (in 2023). In 2025, hearing approvals averaged 50% nationally.

There are many theories about why approval rates at hearings go up and down.  My own theory is that Social Security administrators are very focused on the state of the Disability Trust fund.  According to a “think tank” called the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Social Security trust fund will become “insolvent” in 2032. This  means that the funds coming in (via taxes) won’t be sufficient to pay benefits.  In theory (and this is unlikely to happen) this insolvency will trigger an automatic cut in benefits of 22%. Continue reading →